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Transfer Deadline Perspective

2nd September 2008

Ferguson Last Chance Saloon?

Nothing screams retirement is coming than the desperate gamble Ferguson has taken with the remaining shekels left in the Glazer junk bonds bag. Berbatov is the kind of player he would surely have forsaken 5 years ago. I mean if he was going to use this kind of dosh a few years ago he would surely have chased Torres then. Even now he could have gone for someone like Benzema looking to move up who might have some upside and re-sale value.

Maybe he waited till now as when he failed to chase Rio at West Ham as he thought Brown would be more than the standard utility defender he became - he thought Rooney would get itbut no such luck. Now he has no choice but to play a lazy non outlet like Berbatov with Rooney off him in a position, for all the hype, he failed miserably in for several years - off the striker wide or behind.

Add in Ronaldo and suddenly United's strength of last year the massed midfield is dilute with Rooney/Tevez and Berbatov and Ronaldo. If they play Hargreaves that leaves what Carrick and the ageing Scholes or Giggs to try to provide the cover and distribution they got last year? Without Hargreaves makes more sense but that is 20 million the Glazers will wonder about.
Rafa

If Ferguson is throwing his last roll of the dice the news short term for Rafa is good: Chelsea are older and without width: Man United have taken a big chance: Arsenal are a bizarre cult pretending they can be consistent with Walcott and Eboue in their line up - afraid of the approprium of consigning a high profile English failure to the Blackburns of this world: Man City will be exciting but probably not strong enough at the back.

However that is where the good news ends. There is no piggy bank and now Liverpool have what the 5th or 6th biggest budget? They could also face Newcastle bought by someone with more than debt to fund them. Even Villa can resist ludicrous offers from Liverpool for Barry and still pay top dollar for an ordinary trier like Milner.

His real problem is that buying Robbie Keane with Kuyt and a winger puts a lot of pressure on a 2 man central midfield. If he leave Keane out his bosses might ask why about the 20 million, they don't have, for a player, like Berbatov, who has no meaningful resale value. Indeed they are probably grateful to avoid Barry!

Gerrard is heading to 30 and Liverpool have no money. If it does not happen this year bad luck Liverpool... There is a bigger ogre than Chelsea in town and it is hungry. Maybe they can bring on the youth but I really don't see Rafa as an Uncle Arsene or Grandad Ferguson.
Chelsea and Siddy Youf

It is hard to be definitive about it but to show the changes of the last 15 years consider the Man United youth team of the mid 90s with the youth cup finalists last year, Chelsea and Man City. Indeed consider the domestic and often local talent Ferguson built with and the expensive joyless creation of Frank Arnesan. Consider the chances of those kids to ever play for the team allegedly nurturing their development.

Man City's stacked youth system which would have looked attractive to an intelligent buyer now seems like as unnecessary a bauble as a tattoo on an otherwise attractive woman.

Today the new owners effectively told the kids to piss off. Indeed their victims in the youth cup last year the expensively assembled Chelsea may actually have got a break today because Chelsea may have a new idea given they are not longer the richest and deepest pockets in town. Ditto all the kids Liverpool have assembled.

Chelsea and especially Liverpool long term may realise that they were already not able to attract the really great players and now will struggle for the next generation of useful players like the Lampards, Joe Coles and Essiens.
Spurs

Well the thick end of 50 million for 2 strikers who would be worth half that at best at Xmas must count as good business long term. Indeed with Defoe gone the strength of Jol's team is gone. The only problem is what is their strength now? Can they avoid relgation this year and advance? 2 strikers who forced a 442 that left them wide open at the back (at least the open sores in goal have left)

Plus they are now 1 further back in the player trading stakes and quite what the plan is beyond that is questionable. They have the same colander defense and midfield with likely lesser players in front notwithstanding the draw at Chelsea.
Vindication For Wenger

With maybe others forced to use his methods one would think Arsene Wenger was the cat that got the cream. However there are problems first of which is that finally there could be as early as this year 5 challengers for 4 Champions League spots.

Whilst all other things being equal a season without the distraction of the crappy and over blown Champions League would not be that bad one wonders if that would be the excuse for Cesc's agent to start the exit strategy. Also less games is less opportunities for his young players.

His other problem is Theo Walcott's profile. Even after his lamentable performances this year his dropping was still a topic for people to rattle about on Setanta. Yet in a team with Eboue, Nasri, Adebayor and van Persie it is hard to see where Walcott can be fitted in.

Sure the kid looks great if he gets the ball in space and runs at people and occasionally he finishes well. However whilst some players have good games and bad Theo is dead weight and a liability in the kind of games Arsenal need to do better in. Against 2 banks of 4 1 down he has few weapons against an alert defense. He lacks the knowledge/ability: to get the ball: to hold the ball: pass the ball where it will do most good: he is lightweight, easily pushed off the ball to a degree even someone who has seen Defoe would be shocked by: he disappears and seems to have skills but know nothing about playing team football.

Worst of all in Arsenal's 442 he just does not have a position either even when going well - bar late substitute to break on opponents over pressing when behind - something Arsenal are terrific at without him anyway.

If Eduardo regains fitness can Wenger even waste a bench place for Walcott? Arsene must be hoping he gets an offer from Siddy for this great England star in January!
Everton And Liverpool - Bonfire of The Vain and Stupid

Oh how their vanity has cost them. They could have both been tucking into a state of the art shared stadium in Liverpool with all the risks on the council. Now Everton may leave the city for Kirby and Tesco's money. Liverpool fans will be hoping for their own sugar daddy and now are probably begging for the Dubaians to make them a laughing stock like Chelsea. Otherwise the new stadium is a credit crunch pipe dream.

For Everton where do they stand? Selling players to get players in. A manager whose obsessiveness seems to create a good season bad season cycle. Indeed this year their defense so essential in all those 1 nils now looks a shadow - excepted it is early season.
Villa Et Al

Indeed Villa, Everton, Spurs, Newcastle etc will suddenly find themselves in a desperate effort to stand still. Their current players will milk them for more wages. Pressure will prevent them ever considering their own youth. Their plans to just buy and buy again made no sense before Abramovich now they make even less sense with a credit crunch, Abu Dhabi Group and the longer term threat of the Dubai boys...

I wonder if in 10 or 20 years the other clubs give up the unequal struggle and start to campaign for a franchise system.

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