Baseball If it's all about Stats Explain the All Star Selections

Recently your humble author read the book Moneyball and was slightly surprised that it was not about Oakland GM Billy Beane but about a rational evaluation of talent. Which seemed at the time the book was written to mean the Oakland A's and despite a few odd decisions they still have more wins per buck than anyone. Of course Beane's secret was to exploit often simple and published measures.

The selections for the All Star game are done by the public and contain some sure facts that the public are not numbers obsessed. Indeed they seem star player obsessed. The top two catchers were Ivan "Pudge" Rodriquez and Jason Varitek. Now there 9 catchers who have had enough at bats that their statistics are "qualified" and of American League Catchers these two rank 7th and 8th respectively in OPS = SLG + OBP (all stats source ESPN). In the most important category On Base Percentage they rank 10th and 9th of 12. Now hitting is not the only criterion in a catcher but other things like throwing and game calling do not make a significant difference.

What made these two's popularity even more unusual was that the Twins Joe Mauer has a chance at a great hitting season by a player in any positions. Mauer is pushing the mythical .400 AVG at .391 and with a ludicrous .458 OBP (2nd in MLB to Tribe's Hafner).

In the National League Alfonso Soriano was selected as one of 3 outfielders not just by the fans but in the abstract poll of ESPN's "experts". Soriano has some gaudy numbers 26 HR (3rd NL), 20 SB (5th in NL). Yet despite his power he ranks 34th in OBP among National League outfielders. His stolen bases 20 from 27 attempted is at 74% just above the 70% at which it is considered worth while so hardly adds to his offensive output. Even OPS which equates power with On Base ranks him only 10th among NL outfielders. Another knock on Soriano is his fielding in which he must have been one of the worst 2nd basemen and is now an ordinary left fielder.

Of course Soriano as an ex Yankee has a high profile having played in World Series and for the Yanks. Many of the AL starters owe their positions to be prominent current Red Sox and Yankees. Also it is not just numbers as I am sure many of us would choose David Ortiz over the other DH/1B candidates despite him trailing in many statistical categories. Nonetheless some choices do seem to owe more to profile than achievement.

How does one correct this or do we accept that a bunch of sabermetric 'geeks' choosing the "winners" on the basis of stats is not transparent enough. That extending players' selections falls into the same problems as the public - they are players not evaluators. Ditto the managers who hand out Gold Gloves to such unremarkable, in a positive sense, position players as Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeter.

Maybe in the end the current system however flawed is best. You get the impression many of the players are there on sufferance and for the extra money (50/100 thousand dollars on multi million dollar contracts) so maybe those not selected take a few days off and are quite happy. In the end the main complaint is I guess it just gives a further platform for the players people already know and not genuine stars at lesser franchises.